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The conflict in the Middle East is no longer just another international news story. Today, it is a critical operational factor for global logistics. What is happening in this region—key to energy, trade, and connectivity—is causing a domino effect that is already being felt in ports, airports, highways... and in companies' financial statements.

This is not a matter of geopolitics. It is a matter of business.

Airspace in the Middle East has become high-risk territory. The main routes connecting Asia with Europe—vital for air cargo—are being avoided or closed outright.

Global airlines such as Emirates, Qatar Airways, Lufthansa, and Air France have reduced or suspended operations. The result: less available capacity and fares that are beginning to skyrocket.

In simple terms:

• Fewer flights = less cargo
• Less cargo = more expensive to move goods

For industries that thrive on just-in-time production, such as automotive or electronics, this is not an inconvenience... it is a serious problem.

🚢 Sea on alert: the Strait of Hormuz under pressure

Here is the real turning point.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a third of the world's oil passes, is under threat. And when that artery is compromised, the entire system comes under stress.

Shipping giants such as Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM have begun suspending or rerouting routes. Many ships are choosing to sail around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope.

The impact?

• Up to 15 extra days in transit
• Higher operating costs
• Congestion on alternative routes

This not only makes transportation more expensive. It completely changes global logistics planning.

🚛 Fragmented land: the domino effect that few see

Ground transportation doesn't make headlines, but it's already paying the price.

Trade corridors between Asia and Europe are being disrupted or reconfigured. Logistics terminals are operating under uncertainty, and many routes have simply ceased to be viable.

This creates a classic phenomenon in logistics: when one link fails, the entire chain becomes unbalanced.

And that imbalance ends up impacting inventories, delivery times, and costs in distant markets... including Mexico.

⛽ The silent blow: energy and costs Oil reacted immediately. And that is what hurts transportation the most.

When crude oil prices rise:

• Fuel prices rise
• Freight rates are rising
• Upload everything

There's no magic here. It's a direct cascade into logistics inflation.

For fleets, operators, and transport companies, this means tighter margins and immediate commercial pressure.

📊 Business snapshot: who wins and who loses

There is no romanticism here, there are numbers.

They lose:

• Global retail (due to delays and inventories)
• Automotive industry dependent on Asia
• Commercial airlines

They win (or at least resist better):

• Companies with regionalized chains
• Nearshoring in North America
• Energy and defense

🎯 Strategic analysis

Global logistics is undergoing a paradigm shift before our very eyes.

For years, the game was efficiency: producing far away and cheaply. Today, the game is resilience: producing close by and safely.

And this is where Mexico enters the conversation.

Nearshoring is no longer just PowerPoint talk; it has become a real competitive advantage. Companies that can move goods within North America will be less exposed to this type of crisis.

But—and here comes the uncomfortable "but"—if we don't resolve issues of infrastructure, security, and bureaucracy... that opportunity could slip away like a truck rolling downhill with no brakes.

🚀 Close

The conflict in the Middle East is not only reshaping political maps. It is also redesigning trade routes, logistics costs, and business strategies.

The question is no longer whether the global supply chain will be transformed.
The question is: Who will adapt first, and who will be left behind?

In January, the Port of Manzanillo achieved the highest container traffic in its history, exceeding 354,000 TEUs (the unit of measurement used in maritime foreign trade), a figure that exceeds the previous high recorded last August by 8,281 units and represents an annual increase of close to 8%.

According to the monthly statistical report from Asipona Manzanillo, an agency under the Ministry of the Navy, containerized cargo accounted for 74% of the total volume handled at the various terminals of the country's main commercial port.

The breakdown highlighted a 21% growth in exports, which totaled 164,000 TEUs. Likewise, container box movement increased by more than 9%, exceeding 202,000 units.

The report also notes that the top five container shipping companies in January were Ocean Network Express (ONE), Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, Maersk, and CMA CGM.

In terms of total cargo movement, the port reported an increase of 8.5%, reaching 2,487,000 tons, a growth that was reflected in all modes of operation: imports, exports, transshipment, and coastal shipping.

By type of merchandise, bulk mineral cargo—which includes iron pellets, copper concentrate, and urea—accounted for 15% of the total and registered a 40% increase compared to January 2025. Meanwhile, agricultural bulk cargo—such as soybeans, oat seeds, and barley—accounted for 7% of cargo, with an outstanding increase of 231% in the last 12 months.

Finally, general cargo, consisting mainly of machinery, tractor-trailers, and project cargo, accounted for 4% of the total trade volume moved at the start of the year, consolidating the port as a strategic hub for Mexican foreign trade.

The purpose of this message is to provide guidance regarding the February 20, 2026 Presidential Proclamation, “Imposing a Temporary Import Surcharge to Address Fundamental International Payments Problems,” issued pursuant to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (Section 122), which imposed an additional 10% ad valorem duty on imported articles of every country for a period of 150 days, unless specifically exempt.

GUIDANCE
APPLICATION OF ADDITIONAL DUTY RATES UNDER SECTION 122

For articles that are the product of any country entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern standard time on February 24, 2026, and through 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on July 24, 2026, the following HTSUS classification and additional duty rate apply under heading 9903.03.01:

Except for products described in headings 9903.03.02–9903.03.11, and other than products for personal use included in accompanied baggage of persons arriving in the United States, articles the product of any country, as provided for in subdivision (aa) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS, will be subject to an additional ad valorem rate of 10%

Exemptions
The following HTSUS headings apply to products that are exempted from the additional 10% ad valorem duty under heading 9903.03.01:

9903.03.02:  Articles the product of any country that (1) were loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading and in transit on the final mode of transit prior to entry into the United States, before 12:01 a.m. eastern standard time on February 24, 2026; and (2) are entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, before 12:01 a.m. eastern standard time on February 28, 2026.

9903.03.03: Articles the product of any country, as provided for in subdivision (aa)(ii) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS.

9903.03.04: Articles the product of any country, as provided for in subdivision (aa)(iii) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS. The agricultural products described in subdivision (aa)(iii) are:

(1) Etrogs (classifiable in subheading 0805.90.01);

(2) Tropical fruit, nesoi, frozen, whether or not previously steamed or boiled (classifiable in subheading 0811.90.80);

(3) Date palm branches, Myrtus branches or other vegetable material, for religious purposes only (classifiable in subheading 1404.90.90);

(4) Bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and similar baked products nesoi, and puddings, whether or not containing chocolate, fruit, nuts or confectionery, for religious purposes only (classifiable in subheading 1905.90.10);

(5) Bakers’ wares, communion wafers, sealing wafers, rice paper and similar products, nesoi, for religious purposes only (classifiable in subheading 1905.90.90);

(6) Acai (classifiable in subheading 2008.99.21);

(7) Citrus juice of any single citrus fruit (other than orange, grapefruit or lime), of a Brix value not exceeding 20, concentrated, unfermented, except for lemon juice (classifiable in subheading 2009.31.60);

(8) Coconut water or juice of acai (classifiable in subheading 2009.89.70);

(9) Coconut water juice blends, not from concentrate, packaged for retail sale (classifiable in subheading 2009.90.40);

(10) Acai preparations for the manufacture of beverages (classifiable in subheading 2106.90.99); and

(11) Essential oils other than those of citrus fruit, nesoi, for religious purposes only (classifiable in subheading 3301.29.51).

Filers must ensure that all supporting documentation that substantiates the intended use of the product, where applicable, is kept on file for recordkeeping purposes. 

9903.03.05: Articles of civil aircraft (all aircraft other than military aircraft); their engines, parts and components; their other parts, components and subassemblies; and ground flight simulators and their parts and components of any country, provided for in subdivision (aa)(iv) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS.

Filers must ensure that all supporting documentation that substantiates the intended use of the product, where applicable, is kept on file for recordkeeping purposes. 

9903.03.06: Articles of iron or steel, derivative articles of iron or steel, articles of aluminum, derivative articles of aluminum, passenger vehicles (sedans, sport utility vehicles, crossover utility vehicles, minivans and cargo vans) and light trucks and parts of passenger vehicles and light trucks, semiconductor articles, semi-finished copper and intensive copper derivative products, wood products, or medium- and heavy-duty vehicles and buses or medium- and heavy-duty vehicle parts, of any country, as provided for in subdivision (aa)(v) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS.

9903.03.07: Articles the product of Canada, entered free of duty under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

9903.03.08: Articles the product of Mexico, entered free of duty under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

9903.03.09: Articles of textiles or apparel the product of Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras or Nicaragua that meet the rules of origin under the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement.

9903.03.10:  Articles that are donations, by persons subject to the jurisdiction of the United States, such as food, clothing and medicine, intended to be used to relieve human suffering.

9903.03.11: Articles that are informational materials, including but not limited to publications, films, posters, phonograph records, photographs, microfilms, microfiche, tapes, compact disks, CD ROMs, artworks and news wire feeds.

Chapter 98
The additional duties imposed by heading 9903.03.01, HTSUS will not apply to goods for which entry is properly claimed under a provision of Chapter 98 of the HTSUS pursuant to applicable regulations issued by CBP, and whenever CBP agrees that entry under such a provision is appropriate, except for goods entered under heading 9802.00.80; and subheadings 9802.00.40, 9802.00.50, and 9802.00.60, HTSUS.  For subheadings 9802.00.40, 9802.00.50, and 9802.00.60, HTSUS, the additional duties apply to the value of repairs, alterations, or processing performed, as described in the applicable subheading.  For heading 9802.00.80, HTSUS, the additional duties apply to the value of the article assembled abroad, less the cost or value of such products of the United States, as described.

Foreign Trade Zone
Articles subject to the ad valorem duty imposed by the February 20, 2026,  Proclamation, “Imposing a Temporary Import Surcharge to Address Fundamental International Payments Problems,” except those that are eligible for admission to a foreign trade zone under “domestic status” as defined in 19 C.F.R. § 146.43, and are admitted into a United States foreign trade zone on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern standard time on February 24, 2026, must be admitted as “privileged foreign status” as defined in 19 C.F.R. § 146.41.  Such articles will be subject, upon entry for consumption, to the duties imposed by this order and the rates of duty related to the classification under the applicable HTSUS subheading in effect at the time of admission into the United States foreign trade zone.

Drawback
Drawback is available with respect to the additional duties imposed pursuant to the February 20, 2026, Proclamation “Imposing a Temporary Import Surcharge to Address Fundamental International Payments Problems.”

HTS Sequence
When submitting an entry summary in which a heading or subheading in Chapter 98 and/or 99 is claimed on imported merchandise, the following instructions will apply for the order of reporting the HTS on an entry summary line.

1. Chapter 98 (if applicable)
2. Chapter 99 number(s) for additional duties (if applicable)
3. For trade remedies,

• • First report the Chapter 99 HTS for Section 301,
  • Followed by the Chapter 99 HTS for Section 122,
  • Followed by the Chapter 99 HTS for Section 232
  • Followed by the Chapter 99 HTS for Section 201 duties (if applicable),
  • Followed by the Chapter 99 HTS for Section 201 quota (if applicable).

4. Chapter 99 number(s) for REPLACEMENT duty or other use (i.e., Miscellaneous Tariff Bill or other provisions)
5. Chapter 99 number for other quota (not covered by #3) (if applicable)
6. Chapter 1 to 97 Commodity Tariff

The entered value of the imported product reported on the entry summary line should be reported on the Chapter 1-97 HTS classification, unless Chapter 98 reporting provisions require the entered value to be reported differently.

CBP will provide additional guidance to the trade community through CSMS messages as appropriate.

If you encounter any errors in filing an entry summary, contact your CBP client representative or the ACE Help Desk.

The supply chain in Mexico recently received a stark reminder of its fragility in the face of violence linked to high-impact operations. Following a security operation carried out on February 22, 2026, in Tapalpa, Jalisco, coordinated reactions were triggered in different regions of the country, including roadblocks, vehicle burnings, and acts of intimidation aimed at hindering mobility.

In the days that followed, intermittent closures were reported on strategic stretches of road in Jalisco, Michoacán, and other states, as well as fires involving public transport and freight vehicles in metropolitan areas such as Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta. Federal authorities deployed thousands of additional personnel to the region to contain the violence, restore order, and reopen key logistics corridors.

For the transportation sector, the impact was immediate: canceled routes, units detained for security reasons, extensive detours, and a significant increase in transit times. These factors put pressure on the supply chain, especially in high-value industrial and export corridors, where operational reliability is critical.

The effect was not limited to motor transport. In various locations, administrative and educational activities were suspended as a preventive measure, while foreign diplomatic missions issued alerts to their citizens about roadblocks and risks on the highways. This combination of operational risk and institutional slowdown affected delivery schedules, the release of goods, and the operation of logistics centers. The result: retained inventories, contractual penalties, and massive rescheduling of delivery windows.

At the tactical level, companies activated contingency protocols: sheltering units in safe areas, restricting nighttime traffic in high-risk areas, redirecting traffic to alternate corridors, and establishing internal crisis committees. However, each corrective measure entails additional costs—more miles traveled, higher fuel consumption, increased operator hours, and higher insurance premiums—which ultimately permeate the entire cost structure of the supply chain.

The episode shows that, beyond the institutional capacity to operate formally, security in the territory remains a determining factor for the country's operational continuity and logistical competitiveness.

The 2026 World Cup begins far from the stadiums and long before the opening whistle. In different cities across the United States, the tournament's organization is built around routes, schedules, and supply chains that seek to respond to the increase in goods, operational personnel, and fans accompanying the largest World Cup in history.

The impact of the 2026 World Cup is reflected in the anticipated movement of sportswear, promotional materials, electronic devices, and technical equipment. Supply chains are facing pressure from increased traffic, limited storage availability, and the need to comply with stricter regulatory processes as the start of the tournament approaches.

Why does the 2026 World Cup affect supply chains?

The scale of the 2026 World Cup introduces unprecedented geographical fragmentation. With three host countries and more than a hundred matches, each shipment must cross borders, comply with security inspections, and conform to different regulatory frameworks, increasing the administrative burden on logistics operators and customs authorities.

Experts warn that protocols for the 2026 World Cup tend to be tightened during events of this scale. This involves additional checks, stricter document controls, and longer verification times, all of which increase the risk of delays in the flow of goods related to the tournament.

What types of products generate the most logistical pressure?

The largest volumes correspond to official uniforms, retail items, broadcasting equipment, signage, security technology, and sports equipment. These products often have strict delivery windows, which reduces the margin for maneuver in the event of delays or documentation errors.

Added to this is the massive influx of international fans from the group stage onwards. The increase in flights, accommodation, and consumption limits the availability of commercial transport and raises air and ground freight costs in the months leading up to and during the tournament.

How does technology influence planning?

To meet the challenge of the 2026 World Cup, major operators have incorporated predictive artificial intelligence to analyze historical data, anticipate peaks in demand, and detect potential bottlenecks. These tools make it possible to redesign routes and prioritize critical shipments in highly congested scenarios.

The technology also facilitates real-time monitoring via GPS, reducing the risk of loss and enabling quick decisions to be made in response to changes in regulations, weather, or operational capacity at key ports and airports.

What challenges do three regulatory systems entail?

The tournament requires dealing with different customs regulations in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Each country has specific requirements for documentation, tariffs, and compliance, which increases the risk of penalties if processes are not coordinated precisely.

Even regular trade routes can experience delays of several days if peaks in demand are not anticipated. Joint planning between air, rail, and ground transportation becomes essential to avoid cost overruns during the event..

What role do border authorities play?

Ports of entry in cities such as Miami, Los Angeles, and Houston have reported record levels of cargo and passengers. This saturation causes delays in the release of goods and forces the prioritization of shipments considered essential to the operation of the tournament.

Authorities have implemented assigned schedules and additional controls, which directly impact delivery times. Proper product classification and accurate documentation become determining factors in avoiding prolonged delays.

What are clean zones and why do they complicate logistics?

Clean zones are security perimeters established around stadiums to limit unauthorized commercial activities. Although their purpose is to protect the commercial rights of the tournament, they represent an additional challenge for access and distribution of merchandise.

Experts agree that the use of technology and early coordination with local authorities is key to preventing containers with technical equipment or uniforms from being stranded at border crossings or restricted access points.

How does this impact national teams and clubs?

Long-distance travel between venues creates complications for managing sports equipment and ensuring players get adequate rest. Efficient equipment management becomes essential to avoid affecting preparation and performance during competition.

Poor logistics can result in delays in training, problems with clothing, or limitations in access to medical and analytical technology, elements that are increasingly important in high performance.

Why is the 2026 World Cup a historic precedent?

Never before has a World Cup involved such a large number of teams, matches, and venues. The 2026 World Cup will therefore be a stress test for global supply chains and for the ability of the public and private sectors to coordinate.

The lessons learned from this tournament will lay the groundwork for future large-scale sporting events, where logistics will be as crucial as the sporting organization itself.

What are the risks if planning fails?

Poor planning can lead to cost overruns, customs penalties, and delays that directly impact the tournament experience. The accumulation of small logistical errors can quickly escalate in an event of this magnitude.

Therefore, understanding the logistical impact of the 2026 World Cup is essential to anticipate risks and ensure that the tournament runs smoothly off the field.

How is the logistical success of the tournament measured?

Success will not be reflected in headlines, but rather in the absence of visible crises. Ensuring that games are played on time, teams have their equipment, and fans can find products available will be the sign of an efficient operation.

In that sense, the 2026 World Cup will also be a silent competition between planning, technology, and the ability to respond to unforeseen scenarios.

What does this challenge leave for the future?

The experience gained during the tournament will drive improvements in infrastructure, customs processes, and the use of technology applied to mass events. The logistical legacy of the 2026 World Cup will transcend soccer and have an impact on regional trade and mobility.

As the calendar advances, the countdown marks not only goals and matches, but also routes, permits, and strategic decisions that will define the success of the most ambitious World Cup in history.

With the participation of leaders from foreign trade, transportation, the automotive industry, logistics, and customs sectors in Mexico and the United States, the First Logistics Summit "Los Laredos" 2026 was held, a binational meeting that places this border at the center of the economic agenda of North America.

The event was led by the municipal president, Carmen Lilia Canturosas Villarreal, who highlighted the importance of this forum held at the Nuevo Laredo Cultural Center, bringing together authorities from the three levels of government, business organizations, industry specialists, and academic representatives.

Nuevo Laredo, considered the main land port in Latin America and responsible for more than 40 percent of land trade between Mexico and the United States, brought together important representatives of foreign trade such as Gabriel Padilla Maya, director of the National Auto Parts Industry; Julio Rodríguez Trigueros, Vice President of Foreign Trade at Canacintra; Ernesto Gaytán Palomo, National Vice President of Canacar; Francisco Javier de Jesús Lagunes, President of Anierm; and María de los Dolores Muñoz, National President of Amacarga.

Binational alliance and modernization: Key themes of the First Logistics Summit "Los Laredos"

After the inaugural ribbon cutting, the mayor emphasized that this summit aims to consolidate a permanent platform for dialogue and networking that will strengthen regional competitiveness, especially in light of the reconfiguration of global supply chains.

"Nuevo Laredo is now the main land port in Latin America and the customs capital of the country. This summit opens a new stage of binational coordination to strengthen foreign trade with a strategic and long-term vision," he said.

He also acknowledged the coordination with the federal government and the state government, led by President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo and Governor Américo Villarreal Anaya, respectively, who have promoted strategic projects such as the installation of the National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) and the expansion of the World Trade Bridge.

The first panel featured Victor Treviño, Mayor of Laredo, Texas; Lieutenant Colonel Eric Salinas, Director of Customs in Nuevo Laredo; and Nelson Balido, President of the Border Trade and Security Council, who addressed issues such as border security, customs modernization, and strategic infrastructure to consolidate the Dos Laredos region as the continent's main trade corridor.

Nuevo Laredo consolidates its position as a logistics hub at the 2026 Summit

The program included keynote speeches, sector panels, B2B business meetings, technology solution exhibitions, specialized workshops, and networking opportunities. In addition, there were social activities such as a golf tournament and the traditional Binational Embrace.

One of the central themes was the impact of the arrival of Mexico's National Customs Agency in Nuevo Laredo and its coordination with US authorities, in a context marked by industrial relocation and the strengthening of the North American economic bloc.

The summit also brought together strategic organizations such as the Association of Customs Agents, Canacar, Censecar, ATC, and Index, as well as academic institutions such as the Autonomous University of Tamaulipas, Tecmilenio, the Technological University, and the Technological Institute of Nuevo Laredo, with the aim of linking logistics development with the training of specialized human capital.

With this first edition, the municipal government plans to institutionalize the summit as a high-level annual event that brings together investment, infrastructure, talent, and binational cooperation, consolidating Nuevo Laredo as a strategic hub in regional economic integration and the national foreign trade agenda.

Mexico maintains deep integration with the United States, its main trading partner, which accounts for approximately 80% of total trade, equivalent to nearly $500 billion annually in both exports and imports.

This interdependence makes any regulatory, logistical, or financial adjustment a factor with high systemic impact.

1. Review of the USMCA: strategic uncertainty and redefinition of rules

The treaty between Mexico, the United States, and Canada is undergoing a review process that, although it does not automatically imply renegotiation, introduces an element of regulatory uncertainty that affects investment decisions, CAPEX planning, and long-term contracts.

Main risks:

• Stricter rules of origin and increased regional content.
• Limitations on incorporating components from Asia or other markets outside the bloc.
• Salary requirements that can increase labor costs.
• Increase in traceability and certification requirements.
• Risk of longer border crossing times and customs pressure.

Recommended strategic agenda:

• Negotiate gradual transition periods.
• Promote mutual recognition of certifications.
• Accelerate customs digitization.
• Strengthen financing and training for SMEs.

2. Insufficient logistics infrastructure to cope with commercial growth

Mexico has maintained average commercial growth of over 7% per year, without the logistics infrastructure evolving at the same pace.

Main structural constraints

• Overcrowded ports and border crossings.
• Weak multimodal port-road-rail integration.
• Cargo theft and increased insurance premiums.
• Shortage of qualified operators.
• Uneven adoption of logistics technologies.

3. Financial factors, sustainability, and dependence on third parties

The third challenge combines financial pressure, supplier concentration, and growing environmental demands.

Main challenges:

• Financing difficulties for suppliers and SMEs.
• High dependence on imported inputs.
• Volatility in energy and fuel prices.
• Increasing ESG requirements and demands to reduce carbon footprints.
• Shortage of specialized logistics talent.

Mexican foreign trade in 2026 faces structural challenges that require strategic planning, investment in digitization, diversification of suppliers, and strengthening of human capital.

Mexico has geographical and regional integration advantages, but its competitiveness will depend on its ability to transform uncertainty into strategy and lagging behind into productive investment.

Valentine's Day is not only a key date for retailers; it also represents one of the most important operational peaks for last-mile logistics, refrigerated transport, and seasonal inventory planning. During February, demand for products such as flowers, chocolates, perfumes, jewelry, and personalized gifts forces the entire logistics chain to operate under pressure, with short delivery windows and high consumer expectations.

In commercial terms, Valentine's Day functions as a "mini Black Friday" for specific sectors. The challenge for carriers and logistics operators is not only to move merchandise, but also to ensure that products arrive in optimal condition and on the promised date. In this market, a late delivery is practically equivalent to a lost sale.

🌷 Flowers: the most delicate logistics of romance

Flowers, especially roses, are the star product of Valentine's Day. Their logistics are complex because they are highly perishable goods that require refrigerated transport, humidity control, and specialized handling.

Much of the volume marketed in Mexico comes from producing areas such as the State of Mexico and Puebla, while Colombia and Ecuador stand out in international trade. The logistical challenge includes:

• Constant cold chain transport
• Accelerated distribution processes
• High demand concentrated in a few days
• Need for extremely punctual last-mile deliveries

A temperature failure or delay can destroy the product before it reaches the customer, making flowers one of the most complex challenges in seasonal logistics.

🍫 Chocolates and sweets: volume, storage, and mass distribution

Chocolates are the second biggest commercial driver on February 14. Unlike flowers, their logistics are based on high volume, efficient storage, and staggered distribution.

However, they still require specific care:

• Temperature control to prevent deformation
• Careful handling to protect packaging
• Coordination between distribution centers and physical stores
• Pre-season inventory reinforcement

The growth of e-commerce has increased pressure in this segment, as chocolates are one of the most sought-after products for express delivery.

💎 Perfumes, jewelry, and premium gifts: high-value logistics

Premium products such as perfumes, watches, and jewelry pose a different challenge: they are not perishable, but they do require security and traceability logistics.

These items are usually transported under the following schemes:

• Specialized custody
• Satellite monitoring
• Real-time inventory control
• High-value insurance

In addition, they tend to focus on last-minute sales, forcing logistics operators to keep inventory available near urban centers.

🚚 The critical role of the last mile

Valentine's Day is a date when logistics becomes emotional. Deliveries scheduled to surprise the recipient involve more complex operations than traditional commerce:

• Deliveries at specific times
• Coordination with the receiver
• High volume on digital platforms
• Increase in urban routes

Parcel delivery and light transport companies often experience peaks comparable to the Christmas season, but concentrated over a much shorter period.

Donald Trump's trade war did not leave a uniform balance among the partners of the USMCA. Mexico and Canada faced similar tariff threats, but the outcome was different. For one, trade withstood the pressure. For the other, trade did not withstand the pressure. faced similar tariff threats, but the outcome was different. For one, trade withstood the pressure. For the other, it declined.

Between January and November 2025, US purchases of Mexican goods totaled $492.513 billion, an increase of 6% over the same period in 2024. In contrast, imports from Canada fell 7% to $351.186 billion, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The contrast is striking because Mexico had a higher effective tariff rate.

Between March and October, that rate ranged from 3.8% to 4.7% for Mexico. Canada faced a lower burden, ranging from 1.8% to 3.7%, according to estimates from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model at the University of Pennsylvania.

The effective tariff rate does not measure what is advertised, but what the importer actually pays. Therefore, it more accurately reflects the real impact of trade policy. Even with this disadvantage, trade favored Mexico.

Under tariff pressure linked to fentanyl and migration, triggered by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), both countries resorted to the same formal shield: greater adherence to the USMCA. In January 2025, Mexico's compliance level stood at 45.1% and Canada's at 34.3%. By October, both were close to 90%.

The composition of exports made a key difference. U.S. automotive purchases declined in both cases. Mexico compensated with a 47% jump in advanced technology goods.

Canada has little involvement in this area, and its trump card, oil, worked against it. US imports of Canadian crude oil fell by nearly 20%, a decline that was less a response to tariffs and more a result of the drop in international oil prices in 2025.

This contrast is no coincidence, as Mexico has surpassed both China and Canada to become the United States' main trading partner, supported by deep integration into North American manufacturing and the relocation of production processes. The USMCA provides the common framework, but each country's role within the supply chain differs significantly.

Mexico operates as a major manufacturer, being the largest source of U.S. imports, especially in the automotive, electronics, and machinery sectors.

The country leads Latin America in exports of high-tech manufacturing, supported by lower costs and geographical proximity to the United States.

Canada maintains a key role, albeit a different one. Its trade relationship with the United States is based on energy, raw materials, and specific automotive components. This specialization makes it more sensitive to price cycles and regulatory changes.

Opposite treatment

Politics also played a role. Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, with Marcelo Ebrard leading economic negotiations, chose to keep confrontation out of public discourse, strengthen technical cooperation, and align itself with Washington's priorities. Canada chose a different path. Mark Carney took a firmer stance against Trump, leading to episodes of trade tension.

Ebrard attributed the export performance to the strength of the Mexican economy and the competitiveness of its companies, even in an environment of global uncertainty and with a strong peso.

The Ministry of Finance noted that the peso closed as one of the world's most resilient currencies, appreciating 14 percent against the dollar. A stronger peso tends to make products more expensive for foreign buyers and slow demand. Even so, exports held up.

Data from Inegi indicate that Mexican exports closed 2025 at $664.837 billion, with more than 80 percent destined for the United States.

On the Canadian side, Export Development Canada warns that the main source of uncertainty for its exporters was the recurring adjustments to US trade policy and the persistent threat of sectoral tariffs. Uncertainty peaked, subsided, and rebounded throughout the year. As a result, many companies chose to accumulate inventories as a defense against Washington's next move.

In a trade war, it is not enough to simply impose the same tariffs. What matters is the productive structure, the political moment, and the interpretation of power. Mexico and Canada share the treaty, but not the outcome.

February 17, 2026, marks the beginning of the Chinese New Year, one of Asia's most important holidays. This period has a direct impact on international trade and global supply chains.

For at least two weeks, and in some cases more than a month, factories, ports, and logistics centers in China are reducing operations. This decrease in operations is affecting production and logistics flows worldwide.

Operational effects of the production slowdown in China

China is the world's leading exporter, so its production slowdown impacts multiple industries. Millions of workers move to their hometowns during this period.

This movement causes staggered factory closures, even one or two weeks before the official start of the holiday. The consequences include shipping delays and port congestion.

There have also been increases in transportation rates, especially in the weeks leading up to the holiday. Industry estimates indicate that global maritime trade may slow down by between 15% and 20%.

Risks for SMEs and importing entrepreneurs

For SMEs and entrepreneurs who import from Asia, this event often becomes an operational "blind spot." Orders cannot be fulfilled and stock shortages occur.

There are also additional transportation costs and disruptions to operational continuity. According to the sector, the lack of advance planning intensifies these risks.

"Every year we see the same pattern: those who don't plan ahead face delays, cost overruns, and supply issues," warns Gabriel Gurovich, Chief Evangelist Officer at KLog.co.

"Chinese New Year is no surprise, but it continues to be underestimated, especially by SMEs and entrepreneurs," he adds.

An impact that extends beyond the holidays

The logistical impact is not limited exclusively to the official holiday days. The effects extend before and after the holiday period. "The most common mistake is to think that the impact is limited only to the holidays," explains Gurovich. "In practice, the effect extends before and after," he notes.

Why Chinese New Year 2026 demands greater attention

Chinese New Year 2026 marks the beginning of the Year of the Fire Horse. According to Chinese tradition, this combination symbolizes rapid movement and intense change.

In logistical terms, the scenario is already showing signs of increased operational pressure. We are seeing rate adjustments, reduced space availability, and longer recovery times.

Logistical preparations for Chinese New Year 2026

For companies that depend on supplies or products from Asia, anticipation is key. Planning allows them to reduce risks during the first months of the year.

Key operational considerations:

• Anticipate orders, ideally between December 2025 and January 2026.
• Confirm closure dates for factories and suppliers in Asia.
• Coordinate with shipping companies and logistics agents regarding shipping deadlines.
• Increase critical inventories during the period of lowest activity.
• Evaluate alternative routes or suppliers for products that are sensitive to disruptions.

The importance of visibility and advance planning is emphasized. "SMEs don't have to face these challenges blindly," concludes Gabriel Gurovich.